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Welcome back to another week with Renaissance. The newsletter equivalent of Patrick Bateman - we love finance and make great calls. We also love good music…….everyone just forgets the rest of the crazy shit we do. 👀 Stay rich. Stay toxic. Who’s ready for another week! 🎉

Today at a Glance:

Krispy Kreme = Social Arbitrage Trading Dream

If I Laugh I Invest

Byron Wein - His Top Financial Life Lessons

But before we get stuck, this week we’re brought to you by Masterworks.

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The Renaissance Over-Under

Business, Money Markets & Financial News

Krispy Kreme = Social Arbitrage Trading Dream 😎 Trade Alert! 🚨

Ozempic and other miracle weight loss drugs in the US have been on an absolute rip 📈 and it’s caused Krispy Kreme stock to be downgraded on Wall Street, and others are following! 🤪 Went from a buy to a hold, and the price target for the firm was slashed 35% from $20 down to $13.

The only thing I love more than a Krispy Kreme donut is an even Krispier tendy from making a winning trade - and this is a clear social arbitrage with all the markers in your face, but did you look? 😉 

The GLP-1 semaglutide drugs have been everywhere! Ozempic here and there, soccer moms are skinny again, fat cats are just regular cats, the drugs are suppressing appetite and it’s having a serious effect!

This is social arbitrage meets Druckenmiller 101 - the narrative has changed, the playing field has shifted. We see the explosion of these drugs, and then all of a sudden its mentioned EVERYWHERE, every tweet, every podcast, every health blog, did you even notice that it had ‘krept’ into your life so much 👀…….

This social change obviously is good for the stocks in the space, although medical stocks are pump and dump and are usually awful plays unless it’s your bread and butter. But then you have to think like a social arb trader - what does this imply?

If everyone is skinny, staying that way and has their appetite suppressed - estimates show America’s calorie intake is going to be in decline of 3%+ by 2030. 📉

What’s first to go? That’s right, fat sally’s Nazi pastries! (that’s right, Krispy Kremes was started and operated by Nazis, there I said it, just facts👀).…….the hate makes them taste better.

The S&P food and beverage industry index is down 10% this year if you didn’t notice! Now, some rules for you to understand and the play⚡:

- The first thing to go out the window are the sweet treats, not the savoury ones. I.e. Krispy is fucked, McDonalds are not. 🍬

- The worst hit stocks will be those that are singular and concentrated, and geography-bound (geographically and psychologically). You don’t want to bet against a global conglomerate that has 1000 different products that they can sell in every country - they’re too diversified.

- You want singular brands, they sell 1 thing - donuts for example. They live and die by selling sugar rings, now that you can bet on easily! They’re mostly based in the US, sure they sell in other countries but not like in the US and Canada. And psychologically the US love a donut. 🍩🍩🍩

- These graphs are inverse, as the drug use goes up, the sales and calories go down. And revenue of these companies with it.

- ⚡ The play: Look for every USA based food/beverage company high in sugar that has a concentrated business model. And short the living fuck out of it for 30 days, 30 day put options. Halfway through sell half that aren’t moving (unless close to earnings calls) and concentrate your capital down the funnel into the top losers.

- ⚡ Close all positions 30 days out with an ever-concentrating basket of sugary shit; keep an eye on social media mentions and use of the drugs, as the narrative becomes saturated and earnings are hit, close all positions.

- ⚡Most importantly - you need to start spotting these social mentions and narratives and thinking what damage it can cause! These are all critical data points. Every winner has to have a loser, you need to play out these logical scenarios and build a thesis as fast as the market does. 🏃‍♂️💨💨

LITTLE BITS 😎

Ozempic notes from Forbes here, less fun than ours but whatever……https://www.insider.com/doctor-explains-popular-weight-loss-supplements-what-risks-are-2023-11?_gl

Interesting sales/negotiation tip using NO to get it done! https://www.instagram.com/reel/CvkTU3vNjKS/

Bitcoin’s whitepaper is 15yrs old - who the fuck is the real author? The top suspects below (shock, Renaissance’s bet is the CIA, they’re always having fun) https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-white-paper-anniversary-crypto-satoshi-nakamoto-spot-etf-2023-10?_gl

NOSTALGIA OF THE DAY

Crypto Market & NFT News

If I Laugh I Invest: Trades Of The Week & Why Warren Buffett Is Weak 👀

First things first let me be clear: I love Warren Buffet, but he’s a stupid old bitch as a Crypto investor. 🤷‍♂️ And that’s why he doesn’t do it.

As above, so below - it doesn’t apply between the rules of traditional finance value investing, and Web3.

- In Web3 things are decentralised and built, and the value is imprinted or validated on top of what the masses deem it so. They decide what gets bought, not the S&P500 companies dictating what they’ll sell you and what you’ll like.

- Warren Buffet is like 97 years old, wtf do you mean ‘long term mindset?’ It’s over Omaha! More like Omaha beach…..Terrific if you want to spend 40 years putting savings away and topping up a 401k to be just a little more wealthy by 65. Was that what you were built for? Is that all the balls you’ve got to you?

- Take the risk, get the gains, live your life and get skilled, who wants it passive anyway! And let’s face it Israel will probably think they own the rest of the world and Nuke us all anyway. We’re not making it to retirement, so if you’re gonna make it - make it quick boiiii.

- Essentially to be the investor you need to be in Web3, picture the opposite of Warren Buffett and throw away your critical fundamentals of understanding everything you invest in. (you wont, unless you’re us and or Web3 execs).

- TLDR;

And to show that at Renaissance we put our money where our mouth is:

- We bought bags of LEEROY JENKINS after watching their social traffic and seeing their website (it’s greattt), used our screener and got in an hour after creation. Amazing play!👏 And it’s still very much in play…….

https://dexscreener.com/ethereum/0x3574948e6ba1d48a57f4ade944bc0e4eb20f7d5e 

- Our $NITRO play worked out amazing as well and it’s still running! Though we will be selling up.

- $MSTR is smashing their progress and is doing everything we want to see, a nice accumulation mid-week and this will go on for its unholy send! Number goes up, and for a fleeting moment so does my self-worth HA!

- $TOKEN has blasted past $20M market cap! Insane, if you are sleeping on narrative playing small alts, you’re insane. We’ve said it before but this is the unsung renaissance period of Web3 before more attention and regulation comes in.

What we’re holding: ⚡⚡⚡

$DAVID, $NITRO, $DORK, $MSTR, and $LEEROY now.

*** and if you’ve been sleeping, SOLANA has ripped up over 50% this month! 📈Thanks to exactly what we said, a direct link by association to SBF and his trial, he goes down, FTX’s SOL holdings get released. The market is rid of his stigma on it, price goes up. Still playing out but it will pull back now.

Realistically, looking at this I feel like a shampoo brand, cause it’s head and shoulders season! Feeling like these larger cap alts are going to pullback now…..

Wealth Building, Personal Finance Hacks & FAT FIRE

I don’t know if you know, but the legend Byron Wein passed away last week, a legend of Wall Street. This is a man who published the “Ten Surprises” list annually for 38 years! A must-read on Wall Street.

He also co-authored a book with George Soros on his life and philosophy, and was the Vice Chairman of Blackstone. (not Blackrock but still pretty cool👀)

So this week we’re dedicating some time to discuss his life lessons, specifically ones relating to finance and wealth building. Let’s all learn from one of the great minds of the game. 🧠

⚡ 1. Concentrate on finding a big idea that will make an impact on the people you want to influence. 

“The Ten Surprises, which I started doing in 1986, has been a defining product. People all over the world are aware of it and identify me with it. What they seem to like about it is that I put myself at risk by going on record with these events which I believe are probable and hold myself accountable at year-end. If you want to be successful and live a long, stimulating life, keep yourself at risk intellectually all the time.”

There is no risk without reward. If you are not pushing yourself, doing something a little out there that has a chance of failure, you have no chance of outsized success. You have to be willing to take the leap.

It is worth spending some extra time considering what you can do to really have an impact. What your big idea is, where your competitive advantages lies, and then chase that. Think big, and then think even bigger again.

⚡ 2. Network intensely. 

“Luck plays a big role in life, and there is no better way to increase your luck than by knowing as many people as possible. Nurture your network by sending articles, books and emails to people to show you’re thinking about them. Write op-eds and thought pieces for major publications. Organize discussion groups to bring your thoughtful friends together.”

This is the classic - your net worth is your network. We’ve all heard it before but how many of us actually live it? Develop the relationships in your life. Be considerate and do something for other people / customers of your business and they’ll remember it. You’ll stand out and the relationship will be so much stronger because of it. And better yet they’ll even do something for you!

Some real Dale Carnegie How to Win Friends And Influence people shit.

⚡ 3. At the beginning of every year think of ways you can do your job better than you have ever done it before. Write them down and look at what you have set out for yourself when the year is over.

We love this. we have to be conscious in our actions and what we can do to improve. Setting goals is a must. But set big goals, think of what you want to accomplish, even just taking the time to consider this and the path to get there goes a long way! A lot of people drift by unsure of what their ultimate aim is and what they are trying to achieve. Don’t be those people.

You have to set the aim, and then orientate yourself in that direction. The only thing we would add is why wait until the beginning of the year? Fuck calendars. This is the beginning of year you. Start now and don’t wait until the end of a full year to re-assess. Touch base after a few months and make sure you are on track. If not, re-orientate and go again.

⚡ 4. Don’t try to be better than your competitors, try to be different. There is always going to be someone smarter than you, but there may not be someone who is more imaginative.

This is classic Peter Thiel thinking. Competition is bad. Be a monopoly of one. You have to separate yourself from the pack, distinguish yourself. Fishing is better where the fewest go and all that. 🐟

⚡ 5. Never retire. If you work forever, you can live forever. 

“I know there is an abundance of biological evidence against this theory, but I’m going with it anyway.”

Just thought was quite a poignant one to put at the end of the FAT Fire section in an article inspired by his recent passing. 🤷‍♂️ Good advice? Up to you. But its often the ones with the ambition great enough to actually achieve the ability to FAT Fire that find it the hardest to actually make the jump.

I guess we’ll all see when we get there. 😎

Meme of the Day

That’s a wrap for this week! Meet us on Twitter to talk all about it. Where we’ll send you jokes, tips, and all important news from the world of money, business and crypto and more! (@RenaissanceDly)

“Net Return" refers to the annualized internal rate of return net of all fees and costs, calculated from the offering closing date to the date the sale is consummated. IRR may not be indicative of Masterworks paintings not yet sold and past performance is not indicative of future results. See important Regulation A disclosures at masterworks.com/cd.